Iran Claims Strong Oil Cards Ahead of Peak Gasoline Demand Season in the US

Iran’s parliament speaker pushed back at U.S. claims of energy leverage on Sunday, arguing Tehran still holds unplayed supply cards as Strait of Hormuz oil exports remain 95% below normal flows. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf framed the standoff as a poker game of supply versus demand levers, taunting Washington that U.S. summer gasoline demand will amplify the price pain at home. Ghalibaf Counters U.S. Bragging With Card-Counting Math Ghalibaf is a hardliner and former Revolutionary Guards commander who often addresses global traders. His latest message answers Washington officials boasting about superior energy leverage. He laid out a balance sheet equating supply cards with demand cards. Iran’s side covers the Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, and regional pipelines. He marked Hormuz as partly played, while Bab el-Mandeb and pipelines remain unused. The U.S. side already deployed Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases and absorbed some demand destruction. However, his sarcastic closer warned Americans will not cancel summer vacations, so the bill will land at the gas pump. “Add summer vacation to the right unless they want to cancel it for the US!” Per Ghalibaf, the punchline targets U.S. peak driving demand from May through September. They brag about the cards.Let's see:Supply Cards= Demand CardsSOH (partly played)+BEM(unplayed)+Pipelines(unplayed)= Inv Release (played)+Demand Destruction (partly played)+⏳More Price Adj (to come)Add summer vacation to the right unless they want to cancel it for the US!— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) April 26, 2026 Goldman Sachs Confirms Historic Supply Shock Goldman Sachs data showing the depth of the disruption. Total oil exports through Hormuz have collapsed roughly 95% from normal flows near 20 million barrels per day. Total oil exports through Hormuz. Source: Global Markets Investor on X Gulf crude production has fallen by about 14.5 million barrels per day, or 57% versus pre-war levels. Available empty tanker capa...