USDC Overtakes USDT in Transaction Volume Since 2019 Milestone

TLDR USDC commands 64% of adjusted transaction volume market share, surpassing USDT in year-to-date metrics per Mizuho analysis First instance of USDC volume leadership since 2019 USDT maintains market capitalization dominance with $184 billion versus USDC’s $79 billion Mizuho elevates Circle stock price target from $100 to $120 According to Mizuho analysts, transaction volume rather than market cap will determine the ultimate stablecoin leader Tether’s USDT has been surpassed by Circle’s USDC in adjusted transaction volume on a year-to-date basis, based on research findings published by Mizuho, a Japanese investment bank, on Friday, March 13. This development represents USDC’s first volume leadership position since 2019, bringing an end to USDT’s extended reign in this metric. According to Mizuho’s data, USDC processed approximately $2.2 trillion in adjusted transaction volume year-to-date, while USDT recorded $1.3 trillion during the identical timeframe. These figures translate to USDC controlling 64% of the adjusted volume when comparing the two leading stablecoins, per Mizuho’s calculations. Mizuho’s methodology defines “adjusted volume” as transactions involving centralized exchanges, decentralized exchanges, and other identified entities — or participants who haven’t exceeded specific activity benchmarks. Essentially, transactions that appear to represent genuine person-to-person or institutional value transfers. The analysts cited examples such as corporate supplier payments, user wagers on platforms like Polymarket, and capital flows between centralized exchanges and DeFi protocols. What the Volume Shift Means According to Mizuho analysts, transaction volume provides superior predictive value compared to market capitalization when forecasting long-term stablecoin dominance. “We believe that longer term, the stablecoin winner will be the one mostly used in everyday economic activity, rather than just the highest market cap,” Mizuho wrote. Market capitaliza...